3 Key Steps to Forecasting Physician Retirements

Let’s face it healthcare is already navigating rough waters with the growing physician shortage. And now, there’s another wave coming: physician retirements. Did you know nearly 1 in 5 physicians are already over the age of 65? And another 22% will get there in the next 10 years. That’s nearly half the physician workforce nearing the retirement zone.

For healthcare administrators, this reality means one thing: it's time to get ahead of the curve. Waiting for a retirement announcement isn’t enough anymore. To protect patient care and avoid scrambling to fill critical gaps, organizations need a game plan one built on data, real conversations, and thoughtful planning.

Let’s walk through three essential steps that can help you forecast physician retirements before they become an emergency.

Why Should We Even Be Talking About This?

Great question. Simply put, not enough healthcare systems are having this conversation. Many don’t have a formal succession plan, which leaves them vulnerable to last-minute retirements and rushed hiring decisions.

Here’s the disconnect: Most administrators want a 1–3 year heads-up. But most physicians? They think 6 months is just fine. That mismatch can make the difference between a smooth transition and a chaotic staffing crisis.

Instead of crossing fingers and hoping for the best, forward-thinking organizations are starting to study trends, survey their physicians, and have open, ongoing conversations. These steps don’t guarantee perfect predictions, but they create a solid structure for smarter workforce planning.

Step 1: Tap Into What the Industry is Saying

Let’s start big-picture. National healthcare workforce studies are a goldmine when it comes to understanding physician retirement patterns.Here’s what to look for:

• What’s the average retirement age, especially by specialty?
  
  
• How long does it typically take to fill certain roles in your region?
  
  
• What’s pushing physicians to retire burnout? Lifestyle changes? Financial readiness?
  
  

Sure, age is a major factor, but it’s not the only one. Burnout, especially post-pandemic, is a huge driver. Knowing these trends helps you spot potential retirements before they’re on your doorstep.

Step 2: Survey Your Own Team

Now let’s bring it in-house. When was the last time you checked in with your physicians about their future plans?A simple, anonymous survey can reveal a lot:

• Who’s thinking about retirement in the next 3–5 years?
  
  
• Are there certain specialties more at risk?
  
  
• How satisfied are they in their current roles?
  
  

You’ll not only get valuable data, but you’ll also build a culture where physicians feel heard. And sometimes, all it takes to extend a career is addressing a few key concerns. That’s a win for everyone.

Step 3: Start the Conversation Early

This one can feel awkward—but it’s critical. Don’t wait until a physician hands in their notice to talk about retirement. Start the dialogue early, around age 55, and keep it ongoing.Try framing it around options, not endings. For example:

• “What would a flexible transition look like for you?”
  
  
• “Would you be open to part-time or telehealth down the road?”
  
  
• “How can we support your next chapter while keeping you involved?”
  
  

Many physicians aren’t looking to disappear overnight. They want a gradual shift. Giving them that option helps your organization retain experience and plan ahead without sacrificing care quality.

Final Thoughts

No one has a crystal ball. But with the right tools, you don’t need one. By studying industry trends, checking in with your team, and keeping communication open, you can stay prepared and prevent retirements from disrupting your operations.

At PsyPhyCare, we help healthcare organizations like yours navigate workforce changes with confidence. Whether you’re anticipating retirements or facing an urgent staffing need, we’re here to deliver tailored recruitment solutions that work.

Let’s talk about how we can support your team before the retirement letters start rolling in.